the whole world burns

Archive for category 'probability'

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Fourth Quadrant


On complexity, rare events and the systemic underestimation of risk.

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning


I'd thought it was inscrutable mathematical voodoo, so never bothered reading further, but it amounts to determining the value of a particular piece of evidence by taking into account both false positives and false negatives. Simple but powerful.

Small things, links and miscellany, sparkling with light. Sam's tumblelog.

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