the whole world burns

Archive for category 'probability'

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Fourth Quadrant

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On complexity, rare events and the systemic underestimation of risk.

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning

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I'd thought it was inscrutable mathematical voodoo, so never bothered reading further, but it amounts to determining the value of a particular piece of evidence by taking into account both false positives and false negatives. Simple but powerful.

Small things, links and miscellany, sparkling with light. Sam's tumblelog.

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